by PressWhat the world soybean production will be like: analysts’ estimates
Global soybean production: what to expect this year
IGC analysts revised the forecast for the current season for a number of crops. Thus, the global production of soybeans will be at the level of 349.8 million tons. Compared to previous expectations, this forecast is reduced by about 3 million tons.
It should be noted that the projected volume is inferior to last season when 368.5 million tons were collected. Analysts lowered production estimates for several countries, including Brazil and Paraguay. Those countries are expected to harvest about 124 million tons and 5.3 million tons, respectively. Weather conditions in India are on the best footing, allowing analysts to raise the production forecast from 12.6 million tons to 13.1 million tons of soybeans.
Expectations for global bean processing were also revised downward to 319 million tons. The forecast was reduced for China, Brazil, and Paraguay, while analysts raised estimates for the United States and India.
As for soybean exports on the world market, its volume will be about 158.5 million tons. Shipments from Brazil will decrease to just over 80 million tons and Argentina — to 4.2 million tons. Paraguay will also reduce shipments — they will amount to about 4 million tons. In turn, American farmers will increase exports to 57 million tons, and Canadian ones to 4.3 million tons.
Accordingly, the estimate of final stocks of soybeans on the world market was also lowered to 42 million tons. China is expected to hold reserves of 27.5 million tons, the U.S. about 7 million tons, and Canada 0.6 million tons of soybeans. At the same time, stocks of beans in Argentina will increase to 1.4 million tons, and in Brazil — to 0.9 million tons.
Soybeans are the most popular of all oilseeds. It accounts for 60% of total production, rape for 11%, and sunflower for 8%. Last season the leader in soybean area was Brazil, where it was cultivated on 38.6 million hectares. According to official data, local farmers do not intend to reduce acreage this season. The U.S. is in second place by cultivation area, followed by Argentina and India. Brazil is also the world’s largest producer of soybeans, with the United States and Canada in second place with virtually identical numbers. Argentina and Paraguay are next.
Demand for soybeans is increasing annually, also due to the increased production of soybean oil. China, EU countries, and Mexico are considered the main importers of the crop.