by PressWorld rice production to decline: the reason
U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts negative dynamics of global rice production
In 2023, the U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its forecast for global rice production. The main reason for the decrease in production is unfavorable conditions in key rice-producing countries. According to the experts’ forecasts, the total production of rice in 2023 will amount to 502.97 million tons. This figure is lower than the forecast made in December 2022 — 503.27 million tons. Moreover, the last agricultural year brought a much richer rice harvest — 514.95 million tons.
A decrease in the harvest is expected in all countries that produce and export medium grain rice, including the United States, Australia, and the European Union. In 2023, production of medium and short-grain rice in the United States could be down 31% from the previous crop year. This is due to dry weather in California. In the U.S. domestic market, raw rice prices are up 50% from the previous season. In addition, export prices are also rising, which could cause exports to fall to record lows for the first time since 1998-1999.
The production forecast for the crop in the United States dropped from 5.22 million to 5.09 million tons. Exports are also forecast to drop from 2.25 million to 2.15 million tons.
In the European Union, rice production is expected to decline by 25%, which could be the lowest yield since 1984-1985. The largest share of rice volumes in Europe is produced by Spain and Italy. The countries that produce 80% of the rice in the European region have suffered from drought and lack of water to irrigate the fields. The harvest of this crop in the EU is expected to decline from 1.72 million tons, which was harvested last season, to 1.29 million tons. Exports will also go down from 440 thousand tons to 400 thousand tons. At the same time, imports of rice may show record figures, reaching 2.7 million tons.
China, the world’s largest rice producer, is also expected to significantly reduce production in the 2022-2023 crop year. Last season, China harvested 148.99 million tons of rice, while this year farmers expect to harvest 145.95 million tons. Nevertheless, Chinese rice prices will remain almost unchanged due to the impressive stockpiles of the crop in China. Chinese rice exports are projected to reach 2.2 million tons in 2023. The main importers of rice are still regions such as Asia and Africa.
At the same time, the positive dynamics of the production and export of rice are expected in its main importer — India. In 2023, experts predict an increase in rice exports from India from 20 million tons to 20.5 million tons. In addition, the production of this crop is expected to increase to 125 million tons. As a result, almost all of the world’s leading rice producers are losing their former market dominance. Some of them, such as China, will be able to survive such a crisis less painfully.