by PressFAO: world grain harvest will be lower than in 2022
World grain harvest: forecast for 2023
FAO presented its forecast for the agricultural market. According to it, the world grain harvest in the 2022-23 marketing year in cash equivalent will amount to about 2.8 billion dollars. This figure is 1.7% lower than last season’s results. The main factor in the decline is the reduction in corn and rice production. An extended period of drought led to a decrease in the corn harvest in Argentina. And adverse weather conditions reduced the amount of rice grown in China.
Analysts note that the decline in global crop production was not affected by the good forecast for wheat. Its harvest is expected to reach 794 million tons in the current season. It is more than 2% higher than previous figures.
The main region of increase in wheat production was North America. Here local farmers are expanding their acreage, planning to sell as much grain as possible on the world market while prices continue to rise.
Southern Hemisphere producers have favorable conditions for the harvest. Brazil is expecting a record increase in corn acreage.
According to FAO estimates, by the end of 2023, world cereal stocks will decrease to 844 million tons, 1.2% lower than at the beginning. First, coarse grains and rice stocks are expected to decline, but an increase in the wheat harvest will offset their reduction. The ratio of reserves to consumption will be at the level of 29.5%. This, according to experts, is considered comfortable for the global market.
As for grain trade, it will amount to 473 million tons. This is 1.8% lower than in the 2021-2022 season.
Grain export and import
In 2023 the demand for wheat and other crops will double. It will reach 1.4 billion tons. The need for wheat in the world market will increase by 12% and other coarse grains by 10%.
According to FAO, in the current season, the United States will retain its status as the largest supplier of grains. And American farmers will be able to offset the decline in wheat exports by increasing sales of other crops.
Traditionally, Egypt remains the leading wheat importer. Shipments to the country will be at the level of previous years. Demand for feed wheat will increase on the part of China. Purchases for Mexico, Korea, and Saudi Arabia will also increase.
In general, the situation in the world market will be stable. A slight decrease in grain imports to Japan is expected. But shipments to other countries may increase. As for grain prices, there will be noticeable fluctuations. However, without sharp jumps, as was observed in the previous season.