by PressWorld grain production will reach record levels: forecast
How global grain production will change in the 2021/2022 season
In the 2021/2022 season, analysts forecast that the world production of grain crops will reach a record level. Its volumes are expected to exceed 2,224 million tons, which is 2% more than in the previous period. According to experts, in the current marketing year there will be a high harvest of wheat, barley and corn. Increase in the volume of grain production is primarily due to the growth of consumption.
As for the carryover stocks, they will reach the mark of 609 million tons, which is 2 million tons less than before. Trade is estimated at 416 million tons, which is the maximum for a long time. Shipments of wheat and corn, for which demand is not declining, will increase significantly.
Soybean output on the global market is expected to reach 361 million tons, primarily due to an increase in plantings in the U.S. and Brazil. This figure is slightly lower than the record high seen in the 2018/2019 season.
Demand for soybeans is expected to grow steadily, leading to two consecutive years of lower stocks. In contrast to last season, experts are forecasting stable trade dynamics — at the level of 170 million tons. Such figures correspond to the maximum values of the previous period. In the season 2021/2022 the area sown with soybeans will increase by 4%, with production increasing to 383 mln tons. Despite good forecasts, we should expect only a partial recovery of global stocks, as along with production, demand for the crop will also increase. Analysts note that inventories of key exporters will remain low. On the whole, soybean trade reached record highs, primarily due to a surge in demand from China. The country’s imports were recorded at 100 million tons.
The original forecast of global demand from the council, which is engaged in estimating the world market, was 2,287 million tons. However, over time, they decided to revise the figures.
According to experts, in the current year, food prices in the world have become the highest in the last 8 years. Last week, major grain quotes rose by 8%, which was a record high. Corn futures on the Chicago exchange surpassed $6 a bushel, while soybean rose to $15. Wheat contracts showed an increase of 15%, and now a bushel of grain costs $7 a bushel.
The jump in prices on the market is due to demand from China, which continues to grow steadily. By the end of the year, more than 28 million tons will be imported here, most of the grain will go to feed a large herd of pigs.