by PressForecast: wheat supplies to recover from decline by 2024
Global wheat supplies will increase due to increased production
Gro, a machine learning-based forecasting model, has analysed the global agricultural market. According to the analysis, wheat supplies will increase in 2024 after four years of decline.
Wheat is the most in-demand crop on the global market and is strategically important to the food system. Grain production has been falling for four years due to weather and geopolitical factors. As a result, global stocks have fallen to their lowest level in 15 years, except China.
US production forecast
According to the forecast model, production should recover in the current period. The prerequisite for this is the excellent development of winter wheat crops in the USA and other countries. In addition, experts expect favourable conditions for cereal crops in Argentina and Australia. This will allow world stocks to rise and prices to stabilise.
Analysts have noted a favourable start to the season in the USA. It’s one of the largest wheat producers. In addition, weather forecasts remain favourable for the growing season. With these factors in mind, growers expect high hard red winter wheat yields. Volumes of this variety have been declining for several years due to drought. The Gro model predicts that production of this crop will increase in 2024 compared to the previous period. At the same time, the area under cultivation will remain virtually unchanged.
Other countries’ production forecasts
The Gro model is more optimistic about China’s wheat crop compared to the 2023 data. In the previous period, the harvest had been in decline as a result of heavy rainfall. In the current season, experts do not see the influence of this factor.
As far as production in Argentina is concerned, sowing will begin in May or June. Weather conditions have been favourable so far:
— the drought index for the ripening period will be significantly lower than in 2023;
— AI expects good soil moisture levels, which will improve crop quality;
— in 2023, the El Niño phenomenon led to late rains, but the situation will be different in 2024.
For Australia, the impact of El Niño is in the opposite direction to Argentina. The phenomenon brings drought and heat, leading to a 37% reduction in wheat yields in 2023.
In Australia, the outlook is for more favourable weather conditions in the April-June period of 2024. According to the Gro, the ratio of rainfall to drought will favour wheat production.
The model shows a less optimistic outlook for India. Yields will remain low, leading to a continued ban on grain exports.