by PressUS soybean exports fall: trend review
US farmers cut soybean exports amid high commodity prices
According to data from CoBank, US soybean exports have dropped significantly during the 2024-2025 marketing year. This is due to new crop shipments, which have fallen to 2009 levels. At the same time, the country harvested a record soybean crop.
It is worth noting that the current export level is still higher than in 2019. Then, there was the height of the trade confrontation between the US and China, which affected the agricultural sector. Now, however, the reasons for the decline in shipments are different:
1. The strong dollar is forcing importers to look for cheaper suppliers.
2. South American producers have finally managed to reap a bumper harvest. After several years of drought, the region has received heavy rainfall.
3. The slowdown in the global economy has affected many processes, including export-import shipments.
4. The election and change of administration in the US added to the uncertainty.
Sales of US soybeans fell to a minimum during the summer. The situation improved in the period from September to December, which is considered an active period for shipments. However, shipments in the current season still lag behind those in previous seasons.
China is the leading buyer of soybeans on the world market. It accounts for 60% of global imports and buys more than 50% of all supplies from the US. In the 2024-2025 season, China imported one of the most significant volumes of US soybeans, the second largest in the past 20 years. At the same time, Brazil established large shipments to the PRC. In this case, Brazilian farmers were able to purchase the product at very low prices.
Forecast for US shipments
CoBank analyst Tanner Ehmke says US bean export shipments are going through a difficult period. This is mainly due to reduced demand from China. For a long time, China was the leading buyer of US products. At the same time, Ehmke believes that the situation is not critical and that the processes will stabilise after some time. Several trends that are gaining momentum point to the latter:
— a reduction in the soybean harvest in South America for the new season;
— increased demand for the product from European countries;
— lower interest rates in the United States;
— Chinese economic acceleration.
In Europe, a new law regulating production and supply chains has begun to take effect. The aim is to restrict crop cultivation, which leads to land depopulation. One such crop is soy. The reduction in domestic production is likely to increase demand for supplies from the US.
As for South American crops, forecasters are predicting the effects of La Niña, leading to drought and lower yields.