by PressUS and Canadian oats market: changes in the trading partnership
How the global oats market may change following the introduction of new US tariffs
The global oats market is showing an active recovery in demand. However, there are several risks associated with these changes in the US. The new White House administration has initiated an increase in tariffs, making trade more difficult. Additional pressure is coming from declining grain stocks in Canada, an important US trading partner.
The United States remains the world’s largest consumer of oats. The majority of production — around 90% of total consumption — comes from Canada. Raising tariffs could change the relationship between the partners, with negative consequences for both countries.
Canada and the United States together make up the world’s largest oat market. And it has changed significantly in recent years. In Canada, 72% of oats are for human consumption, while only 28% are for animal feed. This dynamic underscores the crop’s strategic role in the nation’s food supply.
The impact of tariffs on the market
The US and Canada have long enjoyed a stable agricultural trade relationship. However, the new US administration is threatening to upset this balance. President Trump has imposed tariffs on several countries, leading to some changes:
1. In March 2025, Washington imposed new duties on Canadian goods.
2. This prompted retaliatory measures from Ottawa.
3. Trump suspended a number of taxes, which triggered another wave of retaliatory tariffs.
4. The Canadian government has imposed duties on imports of US fruit, dairy and meat products.
5. The new tariffs also apply to American electric cars, electronics, trucks and steel imports.
Other countries have followed the US lead. China has imposed a 100% tax on shipments of canola oil and meal from Canada. The same tariff applies to imports of peas. Tariffs of 25% apply to pork and seafood. It is worth noting that Canada accounts for up to 50% of China’s canola imports. So the new tariffs could have a serious impact on the product’s price.
According to Randy Stritchar of Oat Information, the changes initiated by the US have already had a negative impact on its economy. The increase in tariffs on oats has led to a rise in costs for the U.S. food industry. Some of these costs will be passed on to local consumers and Canadian farmers. The situation is exacerbated by the continuing rise in inflation.
To reduce expenses, the US may look to other exporters, such as Europe or Chile. Canada will also look for new importers. Asian countries and China are promising targets. However, high tariffs in the Middle Kingdom may limit the potential of this destination.