by PressTotal volume of wheat production in the EU and the UK: forecast by S&P Global Platts Analytics
Total wheat production will increase in the EU and the UK
S&P Global Platts Analytics experts published a forecast of the cereals market in the European Union and the UK for the 2021/2022 marketing year. The total volume of production will amount to 147 million tons, which is 8% more than in the previous period. These results will be achieved due to an increase in cultivated areas.
Experts believe that in the EU and the UK the total amount will increase by 6% and will amount to 26 million hectares. The average yields are expected to be in the range of 5.66 tons per hectare, which is higher than in the last 5 years. However, such values are possible subject to favorable weather during planting and growth of wheat. As for the forecasts for the current marketing year, the region expects the volume of crop production at 135.8 million tons.
Leading among the producers from the EU and the UK is France, which is also the largest exporter. This country is forecast to increase its planted area by about 18% compared to the 2020/2021 season. The total area will be 5.3 million hectares. Given the trend yield indicator of 7.05 tons per hectare, wheat production in France can be expected at 37.4 million tons. If weather conditions are favorable, then we can talk about 40 million tons.
The optimistic scenario from analysts is a figure of 154 million tons of spring wheat for the EU and the UK. However, these figures will be achieved under the condition of a mild winter, moderately rainy and warm spring. According to the pessimistic forecast, when not all crops survive the harsh winter and bad weather in spring and summer aggravates the situation, production will be 135 million tons.
As for wheat prices in the world market, they are going up, causing instability and negative sentiment among traders. The reason for this situation is adverse weather conditions, which were recorded in the U.S. and the Black Sea region. Experts predict that deteriorating climate in Ukraine, the United States and Russia may lead to lower yields and loss of crops. According to experts’ estimates, about 15-25% may be at risk of spoilage. First of all, it concerns the southern regions of Russia and Ukraine, as well as Kansas and Texas in the United States.
Due to such negative news, wheat futures rose at several markets, and within a few days the trend may repeat. However, forecasters predict that weather conditions will change soon.