by PressAnalysts forecast Thailand’s corn production growth
Thailand’s corn production growth is due to favourable weather conditions
FAS forecasts Thai corn production growth and increase in rice production for the 2024-2025 season. The main driver of this growth is the expansion of planted areas. In addition, average yields have gone up.
Analysts expect rice production to reach 20 million tonnes. The indicator will exceed the previous season’s results by 1.5%. Large water reserves, which are needed to grow the crop, are contributing to the rise in yields. In the northern and central regions of the country, water levels in reservoirs are 29% higher than in 2024. Reservoirs are also 36% higher than they were five years ago.
It is worth noting that rice production is of strategic importance to Thailand. The country is the world’s second-largest crop exporter after India. Experts expect rice shipments from Thailand to exceed 9 million tonnes, representing a 5% increase over the previous season.
Corn production overview
Despite the drought, farmers managed to harvest a large corn crop in 2023-2024. Overall, weather conditions have been favourable for the harvest, and this is predicted to continue this season. At the same time, imports have grown:
— Thailand enhanced its foreign corn purchases by 83%;
— compared to the results for the last 5 years, imports rose by 84%.
The main driver of improved purchases is rising demand from the livestock sector. Corn is in high demand as feed for pigs and poultry. The pig population is expected to reach 80% of its pre-African plague levels. The disease reached severe levels in 2022.
Thailand’s main corn suppliers are the neighbouring countries of Laos, Myanmar, and Cambodia. Under a free trade agreement with major importers, suppliers are not subject to quotas.
At the end of 2024, the average cost of grain was USD 244 per tonne. Compared with the previous period, the price fell by 7% due to an increase in local production. The removal of import tariffs also affected the cost.
The agreement between the partners implies compliance with certain rules:
1. Corn suppliers must submit a list of documents. This is a certificate issued by the producer and confirmed by the regulatory authorities. The document guarantees that the corn is grown in regions where crop residues do not get burned after harvest.
2. Mandatory availability of a tracking system for the transport of corn.
3. Providing evidence of where the crop is grown.
Myanmar is a major corn importer, accounting for 70% of the total supply. The country sold 1.7 million tonnes to Thailand in 2024. Laos supplied 250,000 tonnes and Cambodia 7,000 tonnes.