by PressFAS: Thai rice to benefit from favourable weather conditions
Can polished Thai rice successfully compete with Indian and Vietnamese rice
Thai rice could reach record yields in the 2024-2025 season, according to FAS forecasts. This will be boosted by heavy rainfall that forecasters are predicting across the country.
Analysts expect Thailand’s milled rice production to reach 20 million tonnes, 0.3 million tonnes more than the previous season’s harvest.
It is worth noting that Thailand is the world’s second-largest exporter of the product. India is the world market leader, and the country sold more than 9 million tonnes of rice in the 2023-2024 season.
This figure was 5% higher than exports in 2022-2023. In the first 9 months of the current season, Thailand sold 7.5 million tonnes. The result is 22% higher than the previous period. Local exporters were able to increase supplies thanks to a reduction in exports from India. The latter stopped selling white rice to the foreign market. In addition, India imposed a new duty on parboiled rice exports.
In 2024-2025, analysts predict serious competition in the world market. First of all, India and Vietnam will be affected.
For Thai rice, the situation will be as follows:
— shipments will fall to 7.5 million tonnes, 18% lower than last season;
— white and unpolished varieties from India will be the main competition for local produce;
— analysts see good prospects for fragrant and premium varieties.
The latter have high selling prices, which is a positive sign for traders.
Corn and wheat sector overview
Thailand’s demand for feed corn is growing due to the recovery of the pork sector. In 2024, pork production is 80% higher than in 2022, when the industry was severely affected by African swine fever.
For the three months of the season, corn imports were up 83% year over year. Compared to the 5-year average, the figure increased by 85%. Purchases of distillers’ dried grains with solubles (DDGS) increased by 35% to 88.75 thousand tonnes. The main exporter is the USA, which accounted for 92% of total shipments.
For the 2024-2025 season, analysts predict that:
— corn production will be 5.4 million tonnes;
— imports will be 1.5 million tonnes;
— total consumer demand is estimated at 6.8 million tonnes;
— feed and residual corn consumption will reach 6.7 million tonnes.
Wheat consumption is forecast at over 3 million tonnes. One factor behind the increase in demand for cereals is the growing demand for instant noodles. The consumption of bakery products is also on the rise.