by PressStrategie Grains has made a grain crop forecast for the EU and the UK
Strategie Grains revised export estimates
Strategie Grains company, which provides consulting services, revised its monthly forecast of soft wheat exports from the EU and the UK. Compared with the previous estimate, the current one increased by 200 thousand tons and amounted to 25.4 million tons. At the same time, the forecast of final balances decreased.
Strategie Grains did not specify why they revised the figures, but noted that European countries have a different distribution of grain balances. For example, in Poland and the Baltic States, stocks are quite large, while in France and Germany they are limited.
As for the forecast of soft wheat production for the current year, its figure in the European Union will be at 129.6 million tons. For comparison, in the previous period this figure was 119.4 million tons.
Experts expect an increase in demand for wheat. As soon as the impact of the pandemic eased, the demand for milling varieties increased. Consumption of the crop in the fodder sector has increased, which is explained by the relatively low prices for grain. In addition, the use of wheat for the production of ethanol and starch increased due to the economic recovery and capacity expansion.
As for exports from Europe, Strategie Grains sees no prerequisites for growth in volumes. There is still fierce competition in the market among major grain producers, and the leaders are not going to reduce sales.
According to the company’s analysts, in the season 2021/2022 the remains of grain will amount to 2.5 million tons, last season this figure was at 12.1 million tons. Given this forecast, the experts do not see prerequisites for wheat prices to fall significantly. In the past two weeks, futures for grain from the European Union increased due to the risk of adverse weather conditions, which may reduce the quality and volume of crops. Moreover, fears extend not only to Europe, but also to the United States.
Strategie Grains did not correct its barley estimate for the European Union, it remained within 54 million tons, and in 2020 this index amounted to 55.4 million tons.
As for the corn forecast, it was revised upward to 65.1 million tons. Last year’s crop was 62.5 million tons. In the current period experts expect an increase of production due to the increase of planted areas under corn.
In general, the weather is favorable for a good harvest in Europe, there will not be many dry periods, and they should not radically affect the quality of grain.