by PressRice shortage in Japan reduces consumer availability
Rice shortage in Japan: reasons for the situation
Japan is facing a rice shortage, which has led to a record rise in the price of the product. A large harvest in 2024 should have solved the problem of limited stocks. But the shortage persists.
Rice is historically a staple food in Japan and is used in many local dishes and drinks. Its growing price has therefore caused discontent not only among consumers but also among producers. To control the situation, some supermarkets have introduced restrictions on the amount of rice sold per person.
The price went up also had an impact on the foreign exchange market. The rise in rice prices was one of the factors that influenced the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates in early 2025. This contributed to a strengthening of the yen against the dollar.
Market characteristics
Complex production and distribution mechanisms characterise the Japanese rice market:
1. Farmers harvest the crop and sell it to collectors.
2. Wholesalers buy the rice from the agents.
3. Restaurants and shops receive the product from the wholesalers.
In 2024, rice production grew by 180 thousand tonnes. At the same time, collection agents noted a shortfall of 230,000 tonnes. Neither the agents nor the Ministry of Agriculture can explain these discrepancies. According to the government, the shortage of rice is artificial. The ministry believes that large quantities of product have simply not been brought to market and remain unavailable for purchase.
But it is not just the shortage that has caused the cost of rice to soar. In August 2024, the authorities warned of a high probability of an earthquake in the southern part of the country. The news caused panic among the population. People started buying up products, including rice, en masse. Despite the cancellation of the earthquake forecast, prices did not stabilise.
Almost the only people who benefited from the increase in the cost of produce were the farmers. The annual income of rice farmers is about US$17,000. This is a low figure that could encourage producers to artificially inflate prices. However, farmers deny this and believe that rice is being hoarded and held by middlemen.
Impact of price hikes on consumer sentiment
Consumers are the victims in this situation. They are the ones most affected by the price surge. In 2025, the price of a 5kg packet of rice is 95% higher than in 2024. This has led to an increase in the price of bento boxes, onigiri and other crop-based products. The situation is exacerbated by inflation. It has been rising at a record pace since 2023. Tighter monetary policy is not yet helping to control this dynamic.