by PressUSDA: Thailand’s rice cultivation to rise and the world’s to fall
Rice cultivation: USDA forecasts for the season
The US Department of Agriculture has published crop production projections. According to the document, rice cultivation in Thailand will reach 20.4 million tonnes in 2023. This figure exceeds the previous period’s results by 1%. It is the highest in the last five years.
Experts note that the country has optimal conditions for the crop’s production. For a long time in the country, there was a large amount of precipitation. Rains exceeded the annual norm. This has allowed reservoirs to be filled to the maximum, providing the necessary amount of moisture for rice cultivation.
In addition, the planted area is expected to increase due to higher crop prices. According to USDA, the selling price of white rice will increase by 18% and aromatic rice by 16%.
Export shipments from Thailand are also expected to increase to 8 million tonnes in the 2023-2024 MY. This volume is 2.5% higher than last season’s sales. Wheat imports into the country will increase to around 2.7 million tonnes. It’s up 17% from 2022-2023. The main reason for the increase in grain purchases will be the growth in the consumption of wheat-based products. In addition, demand for feed wheat will increase, despite high grain prices on the world market. Imports of this type of wheat will increase by 40% to 1.4 million tonnes.
The main factor behind the increase in feed wheat purchases is the active development of the pig industry. In addition, Thai producers are increasing poultry meat exports, which require large amounts of wheat for feed.
Global rice production
The USDA has also published an estimate of rice production for the global market. In the 2022-2023 marketing year, it will amount to almost 503 mln tonnes. This forecast is lower than the previous season’s harvest due to lower expectations for several countries. Experts note that most major exporters will reduce rice production. There are the European Union, the US and Australia. The US harvest could be about 31% below the 2021-2022 season. It will be one of the country’s lowest at just over 5 million tonnes. Prolonged drought which has affected grain maturity is the reason for this.
The expected fall has already impacted the domestic market price. So raw rice prices have risen by 50% over the year. Analysts predict grain exports will also fall along with the decrease in yields.
Reduce rice production in EU expected by 25% to 1.3 million tons. About 80% of Europe’s grain is grown in Spain and Italy. A prolonged drought has been in this countries.