by PressOilseeds harvest in Europe and the world: analysts’ forecast
Experts expect oilseed harvest to increase
Strategie Grains forecasts that the European Union oilseed harvest for the 2023-2024 marketing year will increase by 1 million tonnes compared to last season. The harvest is expected to reach around 20 million tonnes, supported by favourable weather conditions in the territories of major producers Poland, France and Germany.
The sunflower harvest will be 11 million tonnes, 2 million more than last season. Analysts are forecasting a significant increase in production in Romania and Hungary. The harvest will help mitigate the impact of reduced yields in Spain, where severe drought has destroyed most crops. France also has a large sunflower production this season. Here, however, the harvest has been affected by moisture and low temperatures.
European farmers will harvest 500 thousand tonnes more soybeans than last year, bringing the total to 3 million tonnes. In Italy, the harvest is worse than in other countries, as there was a lot of rain during the ripening period.
USDA world oilseeds outlook
The USDA has released its world oilseeds outlook. The oilseed harvest will increase by 7% this season. This is mainly due to higher European sunflower and soybean yields in South America. The oilseed rape harvest will be broadly similar to last season. Decline in Australia offset by increases in China, Canada and Europe. The oilseed harvest is forecast to peak at 672 million tonnes. The soybean crop will increase by 11% to 411 million tonnes.
Consumption of the crop will rise by 4%. This helped by an increase in soybean crushing capacity in Argentina and shipments to China. The value of beans may fall due to the economic slowdown in European countries and China. Meanwhile, farmers in South America have increased soybean acreage. It contributing to a rise in stocks amid moderate demand.
Analysts expect meal production to increase by 4%. Consumption is expected to grow by 3%. It leds by increased demand in China and the US. Vegetable oils will be in high demand in 2023-2024 with consumption expected to reach almost 7 million tonnes, about 3% above previous levels. Oil production is projected to increase by 3%. The most notable increases are seen in the soybean and palm oil sectors.
Sunflower production will be just over 54 million tonnes. This figure is 6% higher than in the 2022-2023 season. Consumption will remain almost unchanged.