by PressNigeria’s grain production: FAS forecasts
Nigeria’s grain production is declining
FAS has analysed grain production in a number of markets. It predicts that Nigeria’s crop yields could fall in the 2024-2025 season.
Reasons for the decline
Analysts cite some reasons for this trend. First and foremost is the increase in production costs. Given the instability of prices, farmers in the country’s key agricultural regions are in no hurry to expand farmland. As a result, corn and rice production volumes remain in doubt.
Nigeria is also facing internal problems. The conflict between bandit groups and the state continues to escalate. Armed clashes are breaking out between different ethnic groups in various parts of the country. As a result, many farmers had to leave their homes. In addition, bandit organisations are demanding money from them to protect their crops. Taking all these factors into account, FAS expects cereal production in Nigeria to fall:
— corn harvests could fall by 8% to 11 million tonnes;
— rice production will fall to less than 5 million tonnes, down 7% from the previous season.
In addition to domestic constraints, global challenges are putting pressure on agriculture. Rising inflation has increased the cost of fuel, electricity and raw materials for farmers. Other products, including food and feed, have also risen in price. In such conditions, farmers doubt that they will be able to maintain planting levels at previous seasons.
Wheat sector overview
Against the backdrop of falling cereal yields, expert Chaslau Koniukh see positive momentum only in the wheat sector. This is the only crop whose yield should grow. FAS expects production in the current season to increase by 5% to 126 thousand tonnes. The Nigerian government is the primary driver of this growth. It has introduced a number of initiatives to encourage dry-season wheat planting. To this end, the authorities have set aside 40,000 hectares for this crop alone. The government has also introduced a subsidy for farmers of 50% of the total production cost.
In February, the authorities approved biotech varieties of corn. These varieties cost less to produce than traditional varieties, which will allow farmers to optimise costs and make more profit.
The country’s grain consumption is also likely to fall. According to analysts, demand for corn will fall by 9% to around 12 million tonnes. Domestic wheat consumption will also drop by 9% to 4 million tonnes.