by PressFAS: Mexico’s grain production will increase in 2024-2025
Mexico’s grain production: a review of expectations for the main crops
FAS analysts have produced an agricultural forecast for 2024-2025. According to the estimates, Mexico’s grain production will increase compared to the previous period, when yields of major crops were affected by adverse weather conditions. Severe drought then reduced wheat, corn and other grain production.
In the current period, analysts expect rainfall to recover. This will increase the volume and quality of the harvest.
Corn production forecasts:
— the harvest volumes will reach 25 million tonnes;
— corn imports will increase by 1% compared to the previous period;
— the growth in imports is due to below-average production volumes;
— increased demand for the product from animal feed producers.
The Mexican population’s consumption of corn will be at the same level as last year. This crop is a key ingredient in tortillas, a popular product in the country. However, as inflation has risen, the cost of the product has increased, affecting purchasing power. As a result, analysts do not see a trend towards increased consumption of tortillas.
Wheat production overview
The wheat forecast is for production of around 3 million tonnes. The harvest will be up by 4% compared to the previous period. At the same time, imports will increase by 10%. Analysts expect purchases on the world market to reach 5.7 million tonnes.
Mexico buys about 70% of its wheat imports from the US. Last year, it was 90%, but now US producers have a serious competitor. Canada supplies high-protein grain that is in demand by the food industry. As a result, the US has lost part of the Mexican market despite its location advantage.
Despite the increase in production, export shipments will fall by 25%. Analysts estimate this at 600,000 tonnes.
Outlook for rice and sorghum
Milled rice production is expected to reach 160,000 tonnes in the current marketing year. This is 10% above the level of the last 2023-2024 season. Shipments of imported products will be around 840 thousand tonnes, 2% lower than last year.
The forecast sorghum crop for Mexican farmers is 4.5 million tonnes. Compared to the previous period, production growth will be 10%. This will reduce imports by 17%. The volume of the latter will be at the level of 50 thousand tonnes. The decrease in purchases is a drop in demand from feed producers.
In general, analysts are predicting a successful agricultural season for Mexico. Positive expectations are based primarily on favourable weather conditions.