by PressIndia predicts a record wheat harvest
A record wheat harvest will help replenish storage
India is expecting a bumper wheat harvest to replenish local reserves. The government also said it had no plans to export the grain.
Forecasts suggest the country could harvest 114 million tonnes this season. This would be a record for India, which suffered a drought in 2022. At the time, the government imposed a ban on wheat exports to meet domestic consumption. Gradually, the situation began to improve, and in 2024, the authorities brought around 6 million tonnes of grain to the local market.
It is worth noting that the 2024 harvest was also quite high, which helped to fill food stores. At the beginning of 2025, the total amount of wheat in state granaries is around 16.5 million tonnes. This is the lowest level since 2017.
Low stocks are forcing the government to extend the export ban. Apart from wheat, rice, and sugar have also come under the restrictions. According to Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal, such measures will ensure a full supply of strategic commodities to consumers. The sales restrictions will also help farmers remain competitive.
Import issues
Despite being one of the largest producers of wheat, India also imports grain. The local millers’ association has asked the government to review tariffs. Currently, the duty on wheat imports is 40%. The association suggests that the duty be reduced to 5-10% to improve the availability of grain for local producers. The tax was increased from 30% to 40% in 2019 and has not been reviewed since.
Reducing the duty will require a comprehensive assessment of the crop, procurement volumes and the amount of grain in the market. In recent years, India has experienced favourable weather conditions, which have contributed to increased production. These factors make a high tariff on wheat imports inappropriate. The overall situation in the sector is as follows:
— the wheat harvest for the 2024-2025 winter season will be 110 million tonnes;
— according to government estimates, last season’s production reached 113 million tonnes;
— between 2023 and 2024, the country’s wheat imports were 26 million tonnes.
The authorities expect a harvest of 31 million tonnes for the coming winter season. As of March 2025, grain stocks are estimated at more than 14 million tonnes. At the same time, the target is 7.5 million tonnes. It can therefore be said that India is adequately supplied with wheat. This means that import tariffs can be revised downwards. Such an approach will help support local millers.