by PressImpact of climate change on agricultural activities: a forecast
Impact of climate change on agricultural activities: scenarios
Environmentalists have been talking for years about the inevitable consequences of detrimental human activity on the planet. The effects of climate change are already clearly visible in the agricultural sector.
Analysts conducted a study of the situation, and predicted the development of the agricultural industry. They singled out several scenarios, the worst of which says that about 40% of all arable land in the world will be taken by new varieties. And they will have to have characteristics that are lacking in the species currently in use. This need is driven by global warming and climate change processes that require plants to be more resilient.
The optimistic scenario assumes that countries comply with the Paris Agreement. According to the latter, global warming should be limited to below 1.5 °C. In this case, 85% of the world’s land can continue to grow existing crop varieties.
It should be understood that the more the climate warms, the more modern breeders lag behind in developing new varieties. In order to fully provide mankind with agricultural products, plants must have all the characteristics that allow them to adapt to climatic conditions. And with such an intense impact of human activity on the planet, it is extremely difficult to do so.
First of all, the research concerned the most popular crops — wheat, corn, soybeans and rice. Analysts developed scenarios of grain germination under conditions of temperature increase from 1.4 to 3.9 °C. According to the results obtained, we can say that moderate warming will allow a fairly successful adaptation to global changes. In addition, such dynamics will provide an opportunity to increase yields by about 20% by the end of the 21st century. The fact is that for a number of crops the increase in carbon dioxide has a positive effect on their growth and increases yields.
However, if global warming is more intense, then breeding will not have time to create adaptive varieties, which will lead to a number of problems. We should also consider the fact that some regions will be unsuitable for agricultural use due to increased precipitation or drought. Among such lands would be Europe, China and Russia.
As for cultivation of adaptive varieties in other countries, such as Turkey, India, Brazil and part of the United States, it may not give the desired result due to the reduction of water resources suitable for agricultural activities. Therefore, we should already think about developing new crop varieties that can adapt as much as possible to changing climate conditions and reduce the risk of declining yields.