by PressArtificial intelligence promises high soybean yield in Argentina
High soybean harvest in Argentina could offset production decline in Brazil
Gro’s AI forecasting model analyses and predicts agricultural market trends. According to its assumptions, Argentina’s soybean harvest will likely be high in the 2024 marketing year. Higher production in that country will be able to offset the decline in Brazil.
For its analysis, Gro compares various indicators that help to assess crop health. The most important of these indicators is the NDVI index. This measures the relationship between the quality and quantity of vegetation on a given piece of land. According to the AI model, NDVI scores are close to an all-time high. The heavy rains caused by El Niño have greatly improved the situation. They have reduced Argentina’s drought and increased soil moisture. As a result, soybean yields should rise to record levels for the past 4 years.
It is worth noting that Argentina is the world’s leading soybean oil and meal exporter. The influence of El Niño always has a positive effect on the country’s crop yields. 2015 and 2019 were particularly successful, with soybean and corn production exceeding previous figures. La Niña, on the other hand, reduces the country’s crop yields. For example, in the 2022-2023 marketing year, this phenomenon led to a drought that resulted in:
— soya production fell by 43%;
— corn yields fell by 31%.
The El Niño influence is forecast to continue until at least May, increasing the chances of an unprecedented harvest. Overall, the AI model suggests that favourable conditions will continue throughout the soybean growing season. However, it is worth remembering that forecasts can be imprecise as they are made several months in advance.
Situation in Brazil
In Brazil, soybean production is under pressure from erratic rainfall. Gro estimates that El Niño could exacerbate the situation. Yields should be lower than in the previous season. However, the AI does not rule out the possibility that weather conditions will improve and production will increase.
Gro is a forecasting model with a high degree of accuracy:
1. In 2023, it predicted Brazilian soybean yields with 98% accuracy.
2. The analysis was 6 months in advance of the crop’s harvest date.
3. In the case of Argentinian production, the model results and actual performance were in agreement 94% of the time.
Patria Agronegocios’ analysis is in line with Gro’s forecast of a decline in production in Brazil. According to the company’s experts, yields in the current season could fall by around 2.2% compared to the 2022-2023 marketing year. Lower production will be seen across the country. This is due to high temperatures and lack of rainfall.