by PressUSDA predicts high corn yields in the US
Corn yields in the US and other countries: predictions for MY 2023-2024
The USDA has revised its agricultural market forecasts for the 2023-2024 marketing year. According to the new estimate, the US corn yields will be just over 175 bushels per acre. Previous expectations were around 177.5 bushels. Total corn production will be 15.1 billion barrels. This will add 55 million barrels to beginning stocks.
Dry weather in almost all corn-producing regions in June 2023 was the reason for the revision. And the subsequent rains could not seriously affect the situation. The crop condition was the worst in the last five years.
As for imports, they will be 25 million bushels, with forecasts for exports lowered to 2 billion bushels. Final crop stocks will be at 2.2 billion barrels, up 745 million from last season. Domestic grain availability fell to 12.3 billion barrels but is still above previous levels. Analysts also noted a reduction in US supplies.
Corn production in other countries
WASDE estimates Brazilian corn production at 129 million tonnes for the 2023-2024 season. At the same time, the USDA forecasts 135 million tonnes for the country, mainly due to second crop volumes. Other producer expectations:
— exports will be 55 million tonnes;
— imports amount to 1.2 million tonnes;
— initial stocks will be close to 9 million tonnes.
Argentina forecast:
— yields will reach 54 million tonnes. This compares with 34 million tonnes last season;
— imports will amount to 0.01 million tonnes;
— exports will be 40.5 million tonnes. In 2022-2023, they were 22 million tonnes.
In China, corn production will fall to 277 million tonnes due to heavy rains in key regions. The country’s imports will increase by 5 million tonnes compared to last season, reaching 23 million tonnes.
The European Commission has presented its forecast for the region. According to this, the 2023-2024 corn harvest will be 61.7 million tonnes. This estimate is higher than in the previous marketing year when production was 52 million tonnes due to drought. Although corn also suffered from a lack of rainfall this season, some regions received rainfall that offset the losses.
Overall, the outlook for world corn production is good.