by PressHow the grain market will develop in the current marketing year
Grain market will show an increase in consumption: forecast analysts
Analysts made a forecast of grain production for the current marketing year. According to the document, the figures will reach the mark of 2287 million tons, which is 2% higher than it was in the previous period. As for the trade volume, they will make 416 million tons. Grain market in the current period will be replenished with a high harvest of wheat, barley and corn.
In this case, experts note that despite the large supply, it will not be able to fully meet the demand, which will continue to grow.
It became known that Argentina reduced soybean production, but the lack of this crop will be compensated by Brazil and India, which plan to expand cultivation areas for legumes. Global production was about 383 million tons, virtually unchanged from last season. Trade in soybeans will increase to 170 million tons, up 2% from what was previously observed.
The world’s major rice producers plan to increase cultivation of the crop by 1%, to 510 million tons. Due to such figures we may expect record grain reserves. An active rice consumer will be Africa which continues to increase volume of import. Such a tendency will be observed in 2022 as well. A number of Asian countries reported that they are going to increase areas under crops, which will favorably influence rice production indices.
At the same time, the GOI index on the stock exchange showed a 3% drop, which entailed a decrease in sub-indices. The largest decrease was observed in wheat and barley.
The increase in grain production to 2,287 million tons will also be associated with an increase in the level of consumption of crops. And the increase in demand will be seen not only in industrial use and fodder, but also for food production.
As for soybeans, its yield will decrease, while global consumption will increase. This situation is primarily due to the two main producers of legumes, the United States and Brazil. These countries earn high revenue from sales of products, while not increasing the area of cultivation. Experts expect that large supplies of American soybeans may significantly deplete its reserves. China remains the main importer; it is planning to increase its purchases of the crop.
Generally speaking, no sharp surges in demand or consumption are expected on the global grain market. So far analysts do not see the preconditions for the emergence of the situation that emerged in 2020, when China significantly increased the purchase of grain. This has caused a rush and increase in prices in the market.
Experts note that the trend of increasing consumption of grains will continue in the world, and weather conditions for most countries will be favorable for the cultivation of crops.