by PressAnalysts: the grain harvest in the EU will grow
Grain harvest in the European Union: forecasts for the new season
Analysts of Coceral revised the forecast of crop production for the current year for the EU countries. It is expected that the grain harvest will increase by more than 3 million tons and will amount to about 286 million tons. However, despite the improvement in expectations, the EU will not be able to reach the level of the previous season — when about 290 million tons were collected.
The wheat harvest will increase by 0.5 million tons and will amount to more than 127 million tons, last year it was harvested at the level of almost 130 million tons. Production of durum wheat will amount to 7.7 million tons.
The barley harvest is expected to increase by 1.3 million tons — up to more than 53 million tons. This figure will exceed the values of the previous period. Corn production, on the contrary, will decrease by 1.2 million tons, amounting to 66 million tons. This is 3.2 million tons less than last year.
Analysts predict an increase in the harvest of oilseeds — up to 32.2 million tons. Rapeseed production will increase by 0.7 million tons and will amount to about 18 million tons. A similar increase is expected for sunflower, its harvest will be at the level of almost 11 million tons. Soybeans will grow insignificantly, by 0.1 million tons — up to 3.2 million tons.
As for the situation on the trading exchange, it is not very stable yet. Wheat futures from U.S. producers fell by 1.9% amid a difficult geopolitical situation in Europe. Now winter varieties are trading at nearly $394 a ton on the Chicago site, the price of durum winter wheat is about $422 a ton and spring wheat is $451.
In addition to wheat, corn and soybean futures went up, but despite the rise in price, demand for the products will increase, but without sharp jumps.
The situation in the market may change in the near future, as India plans to resume wheat exports in the amount of 500 thousand tons. In May, the country’s government imposed a ban on grain export, but then made an exception, sending 469 thousand tons to a number of countries, including Bangladesh and Malaysia.
In the France market, there is a decrease in the cost of flour wheat varieties. Now the price of a ton of grain is 385.5 euros. Corn also became cheaper — up to 335.2 euros per ton.
Experts note that demand for crops remains high and consumption is growing. However, the price is also likely to increase, as a number of major producers have reduced supplies to the market.