by PressGlobal sunflower and rapeseed harvests: USDA forecasts
Global sunflower harvest will be smaller than last year
USDA analysts presented their crop production forecasts. According to them, the global sunflower harvest will be 50.4 million tonnes. This figure is 10% lower than the previous season’s results.
Sunflower production in 2025 is expected to face several problems affecting the main exporters. Argentina and Kazakhstan are expected to increase production by 3% and 13%, respectively.
The outlook for rapeseed also remains subdued. World production of this oilseed will fall by almost 3% to 87 million tonnes. The soybean harvest will reach 425 million tons, driven by a 2.6% drop in the USA.
Despite these changes in production, world oilseed consumption will reach record levels in 2025. The figure will be 661 million tonnes, with world production at 680 million tonnes. Experts forecast end-of-year stocks at 148 million tonnes, a decrease of 6% from last year.
EU rapeseed and sunflower production forecasts
Heavy rainfall in the western part of the region affected Europe’s oilseed crops in 2024. At the same time, the rest of the region experienced drought, which negatively impacted sunflower production. Forecasts for 2025 are more optimistic.
Overview of the EU rapeseed harvest:
— volumes will grow by 12% to around 19 million tonnes;
— good results are expected in Romania, France and the Baltic States;
— one of the main growth drivers will be the expansion of the cultivated area by about 4%.
It is worth noting that the global area under rapeseed will reach 44 million hectares, a record high.
Experts also predict a rise in sunflower production. European farmers have recognised the benefits of the demand for this crop and are ready to increase their acreage. Analysts expect a 25% growth in production compared with the previous season. This is due not only to an expansion of acreage but also to improved agronomic conditions.
However, despite the production surge, a deficit in the consumption/stock ratio is expected. Due to rapidly rising seed prices, industrial sunflower demand may fall.
EU rapeseed stocks will also fall significantly. Experts don’t expect a significant rise in oilseed harvest costs. Tariffs could impact rapeseed prices.