by PressGlobal oilseed production: forecast for the 2024-2025 season
Analysts are optimistic about global oilseed production
Global oilseed production has faced some challenges in recent years. These include reduced yields due to drought in many major exporting countries. This has led to volatility in product prices. However, for the 2024-2025 season, analysts are predicting a fall in the oilseed cost in the world market. At the same time, weather conditions will continue to pressure production.
Situation on the US market
According to FAS data, the premium of US soybean oil prices has declined. These trends suggest that the country’s exports may exceed imports. Analysts note that demand growth has driven the price premium for several years. In the US, soybean oil is in high demand as a component of biofuel production. The biggest buyers are companies in California that produce environmentally friendly diesel fuel.
Soybean costs began to fall after the publication of the WASDE report. The organisation gave a positive assessment of the state of the oilseed crop. Analysts also gave a positive outlook for the global market as a whole.
The cost of beans led to a fall in the price of soya meal. Increased supplies from major global producers of this product also contributed.
Overview of production in other regions
In South America, FAS experts note an increase in the cost of soybean oil. The main reason is increased demand from Brazil. Other factors, including weather conditions, have also contributed to the price rise. The lack of rain in Europe threatens to reduce the rapeseed harvest. This, in turn, will lead to an increase in world vegetable oil prices.
Analysts forecast the following figures for the global market:
— global production in the 2024-2025 season will be around 686 million tonnes;
— declines are expected in Australia and EU countries;
— Australian rapeseed production will decrease due to a reduction in planted area;
— the EU crop decline is due to lower production in France.
Dry spells in Hungary and Romania have also affected oilseed production. Excessive rainfall in Germany and France will negatively impact crop quality.
Experts also note a fall in vegetable oil prices. In May, they fell by 2.4% compared to the previous month. However, costs are still 7.7% higher than in 2023. According to analysts, the fall in vegetable oil prices is due to a fall in palm oil prices. Such a trend will offset fluctuations in the cost of other types of these products.