by PressEuropean Commission lowers forecast for soft wheat production
European Commission predicts a higher yield than last season
The European Commission has revised its wheat crop and stock forecasts for the 2021/2022 season. The organization lowered expectations for the volume of soft wheat production for all EU countries. Initially, the forecast was at the level of 126.2 million tons, and now it is 125.8 million tons. It should be noted that the new expectations are 7% higher than last year’s harvest — about 117 million tons.
Experts hope that this year’s wheat harvest will be higher, helped by the expansion of agricultural land. Last season, farmers had to interrupt the sowing campaign because of heavy rains, and planted less grain than previously expected. In addition, now there are favorable conditions for growing crops, and the harvest should be high.
As for export volumes of wheat, the commission left this forecast unchanged — at the level of 30 million tons. Last season, this figure was at the level of 27 million tons.
In turn, experts expect that consumption will increase, and demand will remain at a high level. Wheat will become more in demand for the production of biofuels, its volume will reach 3.4 million tons. Grain purchases will also grow for poultry and livestock — up to 41 million tons.
Downward adjustments in production and increased demand have led to higher import forecasts, which will be at 2.7 million tons. Wheat balances will also decrease to 10 million tons, although previously this figure was expected to be in the range of 10.8 million tons. However, despite the decrease, compared to the previous season there is an increase, then the value was in the range of 8.8 million tons.
In addition to wheat, the Commission also changed the forecast of barley production, reducing it by 1 million tons. Now the harvest of this crop is expected at the level of 53.5 million tons. The remainder of the grain will amount to 6.1 million tons.
Forecast correction also affected corn, its volume will be less than expected a few months ago — almost 71 million tons. Imports will be at the level of 15 million tons.
Expectations for oilseeds have not changed yet — the canola harvest will amount to 16.7 million tons. Imports will go up to 6.2 million tons.
In general, the European Commission evaluates the season as successful for the agricultural industry. Weather conditions contribute to an increase of quality production that is extremely important against the background of growing demand. In addition, the situation on the world market has stabilized after an increase in prices for wheat and corn due to the activity of Chinese traders.