by PressFAC: EU soybean harvest to reach 33 million tonnes
This season’s EU soybean harvest will be the largest in six years
FAC has published a forecast for the EU agricultural market for the 2023-2024 marketing year. The forecast for the EU soybean harvest is for an increase in last season’s harvest. Last season was not very successful for the crop. Analysts predict a 6% increase in oilseed production due to increased acreage and favourable weather conditions. The total sunflower, soybean and rapeseed harvest is expected to exceed 33 million tonnes. The previous season’s figure was 31.4 million tonnes.
In the 2022-2023 marketing year, high temperatures combined with drought led to lower sunflower and soybean yields. But the situation is different this year. FAC estimates that soybean production will increase by 16% to 3 million tonnes, a record for the EU in the last six years. One of the factors driving the increase is the growing demand for oils. And while the EU used to rely on imports, the region is now focusing on local production.
Despite the expansion of the soybean area, the harvest in the 2022-2023 season fell by 8% to 2.6 million tonnes. This has resulted from hot weather conditions in almost all producer countries.
Oilseed rape production should reach around 20 million tonnes this season, up 2%. Sunflower production will increase by 12% to around 11 million tonnes.
Overview of global soybean production
Soybeans are the world’s largest oilseed crop, driven by increasing demand from China. In the early 2000s, the country began to increase its oilseed purchases, expanding soybean acreage in the US and South American countries. However, by 2023, the pace of Chinese crop imports began to slow while production continued to grow. These trends suggest the world market could face record soybean stocks by September 2024.
Prices for the crop also continue to fall from previous years. A further decline in soybean values could lead to farmers refusing to grow soybeans. Brazil is now the largest producer of the crop. If demand from China continues to fall. It will be necessary to look for incentives to encourage local farmers to grow.
Soybean production forecast for major exporters:
— Brazil will harvest 163 million tonnes in 2023-2024, an 11% increase on the previous period;
— US farmers will harvest nearly 123 million tonnes, a record for the country;
— Argentina’s soybean production will remain at the same level as last season.
In general, the situation for soybean production is favourable. The only problem for the world market could be a drop in demand from the largest importer — China.