by PressStrategy Grains: EU rapeseed imports to increase in 2024
EU rapeseed imports to rise, production to fall
The Strategy Grains consultancy predicts a reduction in the area under several crops in the EU. This will affect the region’s rapeseed imports. The EU will have to increase purchases from Australian and European exporters.
Experts predict a reduction in rapeseed areas, mainly in Eastern Europe. Analysts expect EU production to fall 7% to more than 18 million tonnes. So far, forecasts for the early rapeseed harvest in France are good, in contrast to winter wheat. Prolonged rainfall has reduced the latter’s volume.
Forecasts for other crops
European farmers will significantly increase sunflower production. The volume of the oilseed crop will rise to almost 11 million tonnes in 2024. Last season it was around 10 million tonnes. The soybean harvest will be just over 3 million tonnes.
For cereals, Strategy Grains expects yields to fall. And not only in the European Union but also in the UK. Together, the two areas should harvest around 282 million tonnes. This is 5.4 million tonnes less than the local farmers will harvest in 2023.
Forecasts for wheat:
— production will fall to 134.2 million tonnes;
— 139.5 million tonnes last season;
— forecast published excluding durum varieties.
British, French and German farmers struggled with heavy rainfall in the autumn. This had a negative impact on winter cereal yields. Poland and the Baltic States faced a similar problem. Reduced volumes of winter varieties there were expected to be offset by a large harvest in Spain.
Winter wheat production will be just over 56 million tonnes in the UK and the EU. Last season, the figure was around 54 million tonnes. Analysts expect good results in Denmark, Spain and Finland.
Corn production in the region is likely to exceed 57 million tonnes. In 2023, farmers will harvest almost 62 million tonnes.
Overview of cereal consumption
FAO forecasts world cereal consumption at 2,822 million tonnes for the 2023-2024 season. This is 1.2% higher than last year. Wheat consumption will be close to 794 million tonnes. Analysts expect a 2% increase in volume. This is mainly due to the growing demand for grain for animal feed. Analysts predict China, the US, and the EU will drive demand.
Grain reserves at the end of the current season will be 895 million tonnes. The ratio of consumption to reserves will remain at an acceptable level of 31%.