by PressCorn exports in the world will decline: analysts forecast
How global corn exports will change in the 2021/2022 marketing year
IGC analysts made a forecast for the global market of agricultural products. It is expected that corn exports will decrease by 2.9 million tons in the 2021-2022 marketing year and will amount to almost 184 million tons.
The U.S. will supply about 62.5 million tons to the global market, for this country the forecast was lowered by 5 million tons. Export estimates for Ukraine were also lowered. It is expected that here they will sell 30 million tons of corn. As for Argentina, the experts revised the forecast upwards — to 35.5 million tons. Favorable weather conditions will help to increase supplies from this country.
As for global production volumes of culture, they will be at the level of 1.192 billion tons. Moreover, the previous estimate was 1 million tons more. World reserves will be about 264.2 million tons of corn, in Argentina this figure will be at the level of 6.4 million tons, in the European Union — 6.8 million tons. Reserves in China are estimated at nearly 174 million tons, and in Ukraine — 2.2 million tons.
Ukrainian analysts predict the harvest of grains and oilseeds in the country at more than 96 million tons. Last season the figure was about 84 million tons. Abundant rainfall during the sowing season contributes to the increase of production. Farmers are hoping for a record corn harvest, which is especially relevant due to regularly rising corn prices.
Since the beginning of the current season, Ukraine has sold about 18.5 million tons of corn to the EU. This figure is 25% less than in the previous period. China remains the main buyer of Ukrainian corn, while European countries regularly reduce imports from the country. If a month ago the share of Ukraine in total purchases of corn in the EU was 32%, now it is already 30%.
Iran, on the contrary, increases imports from Ukraine and in terms of volumes it has already entered the fourth place among major buyers.
It is not the first month of sunflower oil and corn prices increase at the world market. And so far analysts do not predict a significant reduction in the cost of these products. Prerequisites for higher prices for corn were lower estimates of the future harvest for Brazil, which is a major producer of corn. At the same time, demand for corn from China remains high, the country has already signed contracts for new supplies.
In the U.S. a record number of harvest is expected, but we should not expect this fact to significantly affect the pricing on the market. Growth in price for the crop has been observed since the fall of 2020, and is not going to go down yet.