by PressUS scientists link decline in corn and soybean yields to climate change
What factors influence the decline in corn and soybean yields
The University of California has conducted a study on the impact of climate change on agriculture. The scientists published their findings in the journal Agricultural Systems. According to their findings, American farmers will see a decline in crop yields. The reason is that climate change will have an impact on the location of crops. These areas will move to regions with cooler climates.
During the study, a team of scientists developed a forecast based on various parameters. They found that the two most popular crops in the US will produce lower yields. There are corn and soybeans.
The Midwest is the main production area for US corn. The soil in this region is suitable for growing the crop. In addition, high yields are possible due to regular improvements in farming techniques.
The long-term outlook for US soybean and corn production
Looking at the overall picture of corn production over a long period of time, except for a few years of adverse weather conditions, the volume of corn produced has increased regularly. This has been the case in the US and other countries, thanks to improved technology and seed. However, this could change in the future due to the effects of climate change.
The research model tracked the response of crops at different stages of maturity to changes in environmental conditions. Such as increased or decreased sunlight, temperature changes and rainfall. The model then predicted yields for each crop under the influence of these factors. It turned out that more productive areas would move northwards under climate change.
According to Professor Guilin Wang, an analysis of historical trends shows that the decline in production occurred during periods of drought and high temperatures. Scientists predict that water scarcity could be a key factor in the decline of crop yields.
Key findings of the study
Based on the study, the scientists drew the following conclusions:
— until 2040-2050, corn production will depend on rainfall. But after that, heat could become the main stressor;
— the impact of high temperatures in the southern regions of the US will reduce corn production by 40%. It will happen by the end of the 21st century;
— 22% reduction in soybean yields.
The study found that farmers will have to shift soybean and corn acreage northward. After all, high temperatures and droughts adversely affect the harvest. Even so, it will be extremely difficult to stem the decline in yields.
One way to improve the situation would be to step up efforts to develop new crop varieties. Varieties that can withstand heat and drought. There is also a need to create new approaches to farming. That will help maintain the quality of produce in the new climate.