by PressCorn and wheat acreage to increase: USDA forecast
Corn and wheat acreage will increase, but not enough for market expectations
USDA presented the report on the situation in the segment of grain growing. According to data from the USDA, corn acreage in the current marketing year is projected to be larger than it was in the last period. However, their number is not enough to meet market expectations. The total amount of land for growing corn will be more than 36 million hectares. This figure is 0.81 million hectares less than market expectations, but still 1% more than was recorded in the 2020/2021 season.
As for soybeans, the planted area will amount to more than 35 million hectares, which also does not meet the needs of the market — lower than previously expected. Compared with the previous period, the area under cultivation of the crop will increase by 5%.
There is an expansion in wheat acreage, to nearly 19 million hectares, up 5% from 2020/2021.
Despite the rather favorable forecast from the USDA, it did not satisfy the traders. The latter were skeptical of the figures, and prefer to analyze the real data, which will be presented during the sowing campaigns and harvest. The new report from the Ministry will be published at the end of this month, and it will give a more accurate picture of the situation in the segment. An important factor is weather conditions, because of the negative impact of which all previous forecasts will be far from the actual performance. However, the data from weather forecasters cause optimistic expectations, as the situation should be more stable and favorable than it was last year.
At the same time, wheat prices went up sharply almost immediately after the rise in price of corn. Experts note that the latter crop is still the main factor that contributes to the rise in the cost of other grains. Against the background of such instability, any changes in weather conditions may cause serious price fluctuations.
As for the world production of crops in the current marketing year, analysts predict a record harvest volume. They will reach 2 287 million tons, which is 2% higher than in 2020/2021. Large volumes of wheat, barley and corn are expected.
Trade will reach values of 416 million tons, the main crops will be wheat and corn. The soybean crop will be 361 million tons, slightly less than it was in 2018/2019, a period that was a record for the segment. The indicator is expected to improve primarily due to increased production by the main exporters — the United States and Brazil.