by PressChina’s cereal production regularly increases
China’s cereal production will continue to increase in the 2025–2026 season despite external challenges
FAS analysts have estimated China’s cereal production for the 2025–26 season. Overall, it will be a successful season for the agricultural industry. Experts expect positive trends in the main crops.
Corn production will exceed the previous year’s figures by 1.7% and will amount to 300 million tonnes. Moderate increases in wheat and rice yields are also forecast. This rise in production volumes is due to measures introduced by the PRC government to ensure food security. As part of this strategy, the authorities are stimulating the domestic production of key crops. This will reduce the country’s reliance on imports.
One such initiative is the search for alternative corn supply options. The government intends to reduce its grain purchases on the world market by using substitute products. Additionally, China plans to reduce imports of soya meal.
FAS analysts state that the priority for China remains the development of agriculture. The main emphasis is placed on the following areas:
— implementing major programmes to boost cereal and oilseed production;
— enlarging cultivated areas and ensuring their stable utilisation;
— expanding the planting of genetically modified corn;
— developing genetic engineering to create new crops is also a priority.
According to the authorities’ expectations, the first results of implementing these initiatives will be visible in the current agricultural season.
In 2024, the Chinese authorities enhanced state purchases of grain from local farmers. This allowed reserves to be filled and ensured a high income for producers.
Grain production overview
With production of 300 million tonnes, ending stocks of corn will be 182 million tonnes. This is 13 million tonnes lower than last year’s figure, due to grown consumption.
Wheat production is forecast at 142 million tonnes. This is 1.5% higher than last season’s results. This growth is due to an increase in the area sown and incentives for farmers. Local producers are keen to raise their yields because they can be sure of making a profit.
Consumption of wheat should reach 151 million tonnes, which is slightly below last year’s figures. About 70% of this is for food needs. The feed sector accounts for 5–20%.
The raw rice harvest is expected to reach 209 million tonnes, which is 1% higher than last year’s production. In 2024, this crop’s yield in China reached record levels. Growth dynamics will continue in 2025.
Rice consumption will also increase slightly to 146 million tonnes. This growth will be driven by demand for feed. However, demand from the population is falling. As living standards rise, the Chinese are moving away from this traditional product.