by PressUSDA forecast: Brazil’s grain volumes could reach record highs
Brazil regularly increases grain volumes
Brazil has significantly increased its supply of agricultural products to the world market in recent years. This is due to the growth of local crop production and the reduction of other suppliers. According to USDA estimates for the 2022/2023 season, grain volumes will reach record levels. Local farmers also had a good harvest last marketing year.
Analysts predict that Brazil will produce about 9.6 million tons of wheat and 125.5 million tons of corn. Assuming favorable climatic conditions during the ripening of the crops, the wheat harvest here will be the maximum for the country.
Growth factors
In addition to the weather contributing to Brazil’s grain production, local farmers are also working to increase their efficiency. In recent years, the agricultural sector has introduced modern solutions to increase yields. Producers have optimized the use of land that was traditionally not used for winter planting. Farmers have received investments that have enabled them to use innovative technologies. Another shift in Brazilian agriculture has been the use of new crop varieties that are more resistant to disease and better able to withstand adverse weather conditions.
According to expert Chaslau Koniukh, if Brazil continues to maintain the momentum of 10% annual growth in wheat production, the country’s harvest is expected to reach about 20 million tons by 2030. The volume of consumption in the local market is estimated at 12-14 million tons. With such figures, Brazil has every chance of turning from a wheat buyer to a wheat exporter.
Currently, the country ranks 10th in terms of imports of the crop, with about 90% of its purchases coming from neighboring countries such as Argentina and Paraguay. In this case, there are duty-free conditions of cooperation.
For the 2022/2023 marketing year, experts predict wheat imports of 5.6 million tons. Exports will be 3.5 million tons.
As for corn production, Brazilian farmers plan to increase the area planted with corn by 3.7% — up to 22.5 million hectares. The main reason for the increase in acreage is an increase in demand from both the domestic market and buyers from other countries. Corn exports are estimated at 46.5 million tons, supported by shipments to various markets. In November 2022, Brazil began supplying corn to China, becoming one of its largest importers. According to some experts, the producer has a chance to sell about 18 million tons of the crop in China.