by PressBrazil’s grain production to decline in the 2023-2024 marketing year
Brazil’s grain production to decline from record 2022-2023 season
The last marketing year was extremely successful for Brazilian farmers. But they should prepare for lower yields in the 2023-2024 season. This is the conclusion reached by analysts at CONAB, who have assessed trends in the country’s agricultural industry. According to them, grain production in Brazil will decline. The main reason is a 9% drop in corn yields.
If the forecast comes true, the country’s grain production volume will be less than 320 million tonnes. However, this figure will still be the second largest in Brazil’s history despite the reduction. At the same time, CONAB analysts believe another scenario is possible. Farmers should expect a bumper harvest if weather conditions are favourable, exceeding last year’s maximum.
Grain production forecast for the 2023-2024 marketing year
Edegar Pretto, head of the organisation, notes that the forecast production is lower than in the 2022-2023 marketing year. However, even with these expectations, the figures are higher than those announced for the same period last season. This situation is a source of hope that there will be an adjustment to the forecast. And that the harvest will be higher than the original figures.
According to CONAB’s forecasts, this season, we should expect to see:
— the corn crop in the range of 120 million tonnes. Expectations lowered by a 5% reduction in the area to just over 21 million hectares;
— soybean production will increase by 5% to around 162 million tonnes. With a 3% increase in area to 45 million hectares;
— the rice crop will reach more than 1 million tonnes. Up 13% on a 10% increase in area.
CONAB believes that the increase in the area planted to major crops in Brazil is due to the optimisation of production costs. And expected increase in world market prices too. Climatic conditions also play an essential role. For example, El Niño is likely to reduce soybean plantings in high-rainfall areas. To compensate, growers will increase the area planted to corn, which is more resilient to wet weather.
Brazil’s agricultural successes last season
According to CONAB, Brazilian grain production reached a record high. It’ll be around 323 million tonnes in the 2022-2023 season. These volumes were 18% higher than in the previous marketing year. And were achieved by increasing the area planted to almost 79 million hectares. Last season’s soybean harvest was around 155 million tonnes. And the corn harvest was a record 132 million tonnes. As a result of the increased production, Brazil will significantly increase its corn exports, making it the world’s leading supplier.