by PressAustralian agricultural output set to fall
Australian agricultural output set to fall after record 3 years
In Australia, yields of most crops have reached record levels over the past 3 years. However, agricultural output could fall in the 2023-2024 season.
ABARES forecasts that winter crop production will fall 33% to over 46 million tonnes. Summer crop production will fall by 27% to almost 4 million tonnes. In both cases, the figures will be below the 10-year average.
Australian farmers grow a wide range of crops. The main crops are wheat, canola and barley.
Prolonged drought hit the sector in 2016-2019, but this changed dramatically in 2020. Producers began actively increasing volumes and exporting more grain to the world market. As a result, wheat yields reached historic highs in the last 3 years. Several factors have contributed to this:
— high rainfall in almost all agricultural regions;
— increased world wheat prices, which led to an expansion of acreage;
— the optimisation of resources for high yields.
In the 2022-2023 season, Australia’s agricultural output reached a record USD 94 million. The value of the country’s agriculture, forestry and fisheries production has increased by 59% in 20 years.
Crop production forecast
Despite an overall favourable outlook, ABARES expects lower production in some regions. This is the case in Queensland and Western Australia, where winter production will be below average. The area is down to 23 million hectares but still at record levels.
Cereal yields are forecast to be at the next level:
— wheat production will fall by 37% to 25.5 million tonnes. This is 4% below the 10-year average;
— barley production will fall by 24% to nearly 11 million tonnes;
— rapeseed production will fall by 33% to 5.5 million tonnes. This would be above the 10-year average.
Australian farmers have significantly increased the area planted to winter crops over the past two years. At the same time, they have been sowing multiple crops in the same fields. FAS experts note that such tactics will reduce the number of acres in the long term. In addition, analysts predict a decline in the value of rapeseed, which will also contribute to a reduction in area.
The area planted with spring crops is 1.2 million hectares. This is 21% less than last year. They should produce 3.8 million tonnes (-27 %).