by PressGlobal sunflower production will increase compared to the previous season
Global sunflower production: analysts’ forecasts
Analysts from Oil World have published their forecast for the 2025–2026 marketing year. According to their data, global sunflower production will exceed 59 million tons. This is 7.4% more than the previous season, when just over 55 million tons were harvested.
Last year’s decline in yields was due to unfavorable weather conditions. Drought and high temperatures in many producing countries led to reduced volumes and poorer product quality. Consequently, the global market showed its lowest figures in four years.
The forecasts for the 2025–2026 season are more optimistic. However, some regions are still under pressure due to a lack of moisture. The Black Sea region experienced high temperatures and a lack of rain in the summer of 2025. This adversely affected harvests in Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria, and several other countries. The decline in production in these countries was partially offset by increased production from other regions.
Global stocks overview
Low figures in previous seasons have led to a reduction in global stocks, which has a direct impact on processing volumes. According to Oil World, the situation is as follows:
— processing in 2025–2026 will exceed 53 million tons;
— in the previous season, the figure was almost 50 million tons;
— the best result was recorded in 2023-2024 — 55.5 million tons.
Market players are cautious in their forecasts. They note the continuing uncertainty in the processing sector. Limited stocks and weather risks remain key factors affecting the industry’s prospects.
International Grains Council expectations
The International Grains Council (IGC) presented its forecast for the global sunflower market. It is more cautious than Oil World’s estimates. According to the IGC, production in the current season will total 56.6 million tons, a 9% increase from 2025.
However, both forecasts indicate an improvement in dynamics, which is crucial after the disappointing 2024–2025 season. IGC analysts have noted a recovery in harvest volumes among several major producers. This will increase overall stocks and alter current processes in the global oilseed market. Nevertheless, weather risks persist and could impact the positive forecasts.
Experts emphasize that deteriorating climatic conditions require the active adoption of modern cultivation technologies. Improving the efficiency of irrigation systems is of particular importance, as it will increase yields and reduce dependence on weather factors. Innovative solutions in sustainable agricultural development offer additional prospects. These solutions focus on increasing production while conserving natural resources.